7 of the most ludicrous claims from the Cybercab launch

Tesla’s “We, Robot” event showcased three major products. We were introduced to the Cybercab, Tesla’s fully self-driving autonomous taxi. Elon Musk also unveiled the Robovan, which is a Cybercab, only bigger and weirder-looking. And Elon finished the show by bringing in an army of frightening Optimus robots that will one day play board games with your kids and wipe down your kitchen island.

For a man with a lot to say, Elon’s delivery was low energy, but despite the muted presentation, there were some absolute gems to be found. That’s because Elon managed to throw in some truly outrageous claims throughout the presentation that lasted under an hour. Here are seven of Elon Musk’s most ridiculous claims during the Cybercab launch.

1 The Optimus robot will be the biggest product ever of any kind

I think the wheel might have something to say about that

Tesla

Let’s start with one of the most ludicrous claims of all. This one is so big that it needs to be quoted exactly. Elon Musk, with a straight face, stated the following about his Optimus robot:

“I think this will be the biggest product ever, of any kind.”

Let’s just put that into context. There are some serious contenders already for the most significant product ever of any kind. Two of the three products showcased at the We, Robot event used wheels, and the wheel surely has to be in with a shout, right? According to Elon, his robot that can barely walk without looking like it’s about to fall over, will be bigger than the wheel, a product that has been used for thousands of years. Sure it will, Elon.

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2 Every one of the eight billion people of Earth will want an Optimus buddy

Do we really want a robot army of billions?

Tesla

Elon also claims that “every one of the eight billion people of Earth will want an Optimus buddy.” In fact, some may even want two. This is even though the Optimus robot is likely to cost $30,000 when built at scale. I’m sure if you asked someone currently living in a war zone or suffering from famine what they would most like to spend $30,000 on, the answer would definitely be a frightening humanoid robot.

There’s a very simple way to prove that Elon’s statement isn’t true. I can tell you right now I don’t want one. There’s no way that I want to own a humanoid robot built by a company that can’t even make a workable truck. Having enjoyed the many hilarious posts on r/CyberStuck on Reddit, there’s no way that at least one of these Optimus robots isn’t going to explode, catch fire, or start telling you to put down your weapons and that you have 20 seconds to comply, like the ED-209 in RoboCop.

If I don’t want an Optimus buddy, which I don’t, then that claim that eight billion people will want one can’t be true; it will be 7,999,999,999 at most.

3 There’s an 80% probability that digital super intelligence won’t be bad

60% of the time, it works every time

Terminator

This was a throwaway comment, but it’s one that Elon has made before. According to him, there’s an 80% chance digital super intelligence will be a force for good. Unfortunately, the flip side of this means that there’s a one in five chance that AI will become self-aware and launch nukes against us.

It’s unclear where Elon has pulled these figures from. He may have asked Grok AI to figure it out, so it’s almost certainly highly accurate. If what he says is true, then for the love of God, shut down all the AI chatbots right now because a one-in-five chance of AI destroying us all seems worryingly high. Never tell me the odds.

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4 Anyone will be able to have any products and services they want

Who’s paying for the power, Elon?

Tesla

There seems to be a lot of people at the moment saying that technology will usher in an age of unimaginable prosperity. Only recently, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, the man behind ChatGPT, claimed in a blog post that “in the future, everyone’s lives can be better than anyone’s life is now.” Elon is offering a similar view of the future; with Optimus robots doing all the jobs for us, it will usher in a new dawn where “anyone will be able to have any products and services they want; it will be an age of abundance.”

The flaw in this plan is that even with robots doing all the work for free, products and services still require raw materials and energy, both of which cost money. It’s unlikely that robots replacing humans getting paid peanuts to make your iPhone in a factory in China will mean you’ll be able to buy the iPhone 19 for $10. It’s interesting that all the people that seem to be saying that tech will bring a new dawn of prosperity are also the ones selling that tech. Maybe it will turn out to be true — for them, at least.

5 Your autonomous car will be used ten times more often than your current car

The idea is good, but the figures don’t add up

Tesla

This one is a little contentious because, to some extent, the claim has the potential to be true. However, the numbers just don’t seem to add up. Elon points out that the average person uses their car for about 10 hours out of the 168 hours in a week. If a car can drive itself, then it could be used as much as ten times more than cars are currently, making your car ten times more valuable.

At first glance, this seems to add up. If your car can drive itself, then when you’re not using it, you could put it to work as a taxi, driving around and taking people where they need to go, and earning you some money while you sleep or work. It doesn’t seem unreasonable that your car could be used for 100 hours in the week in this way.

There are a few issues here, however. Firstly, if you’ve spent $30,000 on a self-driving car, do you want total strangers driving around in it for 90 hours a week? Even if you do, there’s a problem with demand. You let people use your car as a taxi for 90 hours a week, no problem. Your neighbor does the same. So does the neighbor on the other side. Three houses alone can offer nearly 300 hours of rides a week. It doesn’t take long before the available hours from all of these autonomous cars vastly outstrip the demand, meaning that your car will end up sitting idle in your garage after all.

If somehow demand matches supply, the problems are even worse. If every car is used for ten times as much as it is currently, then the roads will have ten times the amount of traffic — some utopian future.

6 Uber drivers will become car shepherds with flocks of cars

If one Uber driver has 20 cars, 19 Uber drivers are out of a job

Tesla/Pocket-Lint

If you’re an Uber driver worried about losing your source of income, don’t worry, Elon has you covered. He envisions that today’s Uber drivers will become tomorrow’s car shepherds. That’s right, Uber drivers in the future will have fleets of 10-20 cars that they will look after like a shepherd tends to his flock.

Never mind that a fleet of 20 Cybercabs would set you back around $600,000, money that the average Uber driver is unlikely to have lying around. Once again, it’s an issue of demand. If an Uber driver today goes from one car to a fleet of 20, then they’re doing the work of 19 other Uber drivers, meaning the other 19 are effectively put out of business. It’s not possible for every driver today to run a fleet of 20 cars and still have enough demand to make it financially viable.

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7 The Cybercab will be ready before 2027

Tesla’s track record says otherwise

Tesla

I didn’t think any claim could be more unlikely than Elon’s scary robots being the biggest product ever, but he managed to top it with an even more unlikely claim. That’s right, Elon said that the Cybercab will be ready “before 2027.” Let’s take a look at recent history. In 2014, Elon said that the Cybertruck would be ready in 4-5 years. 2018 came and went, but no Cybertruck. 2019, when we should have been able to start buying them, was when the first concept Cybertruck was unveiled. It wasn’t until the very end of 2023 that the first Cybertrucks rolled precariously out of Tesla’s showrooms.

The Cybertruck is basically just a big car with a hideous-looking body, hardly a huge technological leap. The Cybercab aims to be a state-of-the-art, fully self-driving autonomous vehicle that needs to undergo rigorous safety testing before people go anywhere near one. The chances of that happening before 2027 are slim to none.